Who wins the war
Radovid wins the war unless he's assassinated in Reason of State, and that quest only opens if you keep a chain of Novigrad quests going and spare Dijkstra in Blindingly Obvious. Its last scene decides the rest: walk away and Dijkstra rules the North, stand with Roche and Nilfgaard wins. A Nilfgaardian victory is also one of the two things the Empress ending needs.
Getting to Reason of State
Each step opens the next. Miss one and Radovid wins by default.
- 1Finish Now or NeverNow or Never
A Deadly Plot only starts once Now or Never ends well: right after the mages sail, Dijkstra tells Geralt about his plan to kill Radovid. Walking away from the ambush on the pier fails Now or Never, and the plot never comes up.
- 2Finish A Deadly Plot before the Isle of MistsA Deadly Plot
Roche and Dijkstra need their missing co-conspirator, Thaler, found. Sailing to the Isle of Mists fails the story side quests that are still open, this one included.
Game facts:
q402_escort_completed - 3Spare Dijkstra in Blindingly ObviousBlindingly Obvious
When Dijkstra catches up with Philippa after the bathhouse, trade him the news about Ciri instead of breaking his leg. The lines are below.
Game facts:
q310_dijkstra_spared - 4Finish Reason of State before the Naglfar landsReason of State
The quest opens once both of the above are done. It fails if it's still open when the Naglfar reaches Undvik in On Thin Ice.
Game facts:
q501_naglfar_arrived
The two choices
Dijkstra and Philippa
Blindingly ObviousDijkstra wants to take Philippa away to "answer for all the courtesies she's paid me". The choice comes after the first exchange, whatever Geralt opens with.
- "Tell you what the emperor's after if you let us go."Keeps the assassination alive
Geralt tells him Emhyr means to step down and give the throne to Ciri. Dijkstra lets Philippa go.
Game facts:
q310_dijkstra_spared - "[Shove Dijkstra aside. Forcefully.]"Radovid wins
Geralt breaks Dijkstra's other leg. Reason of State never starts.
The co-conspirators turn on each other
Reason of StateAt the safe house after Radovid's death, once Dijkstra walks in and tells Thaler there will be no truce with Nilfgaard.
- "Won't let you kill them."Nilfgaard wins
Geralt fights Dijkstra's men and kills Dijkstra. Roche and Thaler's truce with Emhyr stands: Nilfgaard keeps Aedirn and Lyria, and Temeria comes back as the empire's vassal state.
Game facts:
mq3035_fdb_dijkstra_dead,mq3035_free_temeria - "Do what you will."Dijkstra wins
Geralt leaves before the fighting starts, and Dijkstra's men kill Roche and his band. Dijkstra takes over Redania and fights on.
Game facts:
mq3035_fdb_roche_talar_dead
The three outcomes
Radovid wins
Reason of State never happens, fails, or is never finished.
Radovid beats Nilfgaard in the field, takes the whole North and carries his witch hunts into Temeria and Aedirn. Emhyr is assassinated after his defeats.
Game facts: mq3035_fdb_radovid_dead = 0
Dijkstra wins
Reason of StateRadovid was assassinated and Geralt left Dijkstra to settle things with Roche.
Their bold plan succeeded: the Redanian king was assassinated on the bridge leading to Temple Isle. Radovid's was not the last blood to be spilled as a result of this conspiracy, however. With no more common goal to bind them, the co-conspirators turned on each other.
Geralt, who has always cherished his neutrality, decided not to get involved and left the assassin's hideout before fighting began. Though Roche and his band had already overcome a great deal, it was clear they would not be able to defeat the overwhelming numbers of Dijkstra's thugs. Madame Irina's empty theater hosted a brutal spectacle in which the fiercest Temerian patriots met a bloody end.
Game facts: mq3035_fdb_radovid_dead >= 1, mq3035_fdb_roche_talar_dead >= 1
Nilfgaard wins
Reason of StateRadovid was assassinated and Geralt defended Roche, Thaler and Ves from Dijkstra.
Their bold plan succeeded: the Redanian king was assassinated on the bridge leading to Temple Isle. Radovid's was not the last blood to be spilled as a result of this conspiracy, however. With no more common goal to bind them, the co-conspirators turned on each other.
Though Geralt has always prized his neutrality, he did not intend to sit idly and watch Dijkstra's thugs butcher his friends. And so the Redanian spy's long-awaited moment of triumph transformed into his final defeat at the witcher's hands.
Game facts: mq3035_fdb_radovid_dead >= 1, mq3035_free_temeria >= 1
The war's epilogue slides
Three slides cover the war at the end of the game, one each for Novigrad, the Northern Kingdoms and Nilfgaard.
Novigrad
Radovid had many faults. He was cruel, impetuous and pathologically ambitious.
But he was a tactical genius – that's undeniable. Commanding forces far outnumbered by his foe's, he handily defeated the invader from the south.
The Redanian Eagle spread its wings, taking all the North, including Novigrad, beneath them.
Game facts: mq3035_fdb_radovid_dead = 0
The 3rd Northern War was a clash between two great strategists: Radovid V, known as "The Stern," and Emhyr var Emreis.
Both seemed invincible, yet both were defeated. Nilfgaard, invading from the south, was repelled in the field, while the North's "supreme leader" fell victim to assassins.
Yet Redania stood victorious, and a man who had thus far operated in shadow took up the reins of power. That man was Sigismund Dijkstra.
Game facts: mq3035_fdb_radovid_dead >= 1, mq3035_free_temeria = 0
The 3rd Northern War ended – the invader from the south achieved complete victory.
Robbed of Radovid's tactical genius, the Northern Realms could not withstand Emhyr's countless legions.
Black banners appeared over Novigrad and all Redania.
Game facts: mq3035_free_temeria >= 1
The Northern Kingdoms
With victory in the war against Nilfgaard secured, Radovid proceeded to complete his witch hunt.
As they had in Novigrad, pyres burned in Temeria and Aedirn, lands now "liberated" by the Redanian monarch. In the drive for moral renewal, simple herbalists, pellars, healers and nonhumans – all supposed heretics – were murdered in droves.
For many, freedom beneath Radovid's scepter proved more tragic than servitude to another.
Game facts: mq3035_fdb_radovid_dead = 0
Once firmly in the chancellor's seat, Dijkstra ruled the victorious North in his patently cynical and ruthless manner.
He knew that to preserve peace he would need to prepare for war. Following Nilfgaard's example, he consolidated his rule over vast lands through a broad program of settlement and industrialization.
All for the good of his subjects – though often contrary to their will.
Game facts: mq3035_fdb_radovid_dead >= 1, mq3035_free_temeria = 0
Weary of rebel raids, Emhyr var Emreis conceded, restoring Temeria as a realm in liege to the empire.
When the guerillas laid down their arms, the emperor shifted his forces to other fronts.
Through Nilfgaard's victory, Temerians got their country back, and history, once again, proved a consummate trickster.
Game facts: mq3035_free_temeria >= 1
Nilfgaard
Having dealt with Radovid, Emhyr var Emreis did the same with enemies domestic.
The emperor's loyal spies named all who had conspired against him – traders, soldiers and aristocrats alike.
Though their mutiny had only been a murky plan, the emperor showed no mercy. As was his wont.
Game facts: mq3035_free_temeria >= 1
As long as his armies went from one victory to the next, Emhyr's subjects remained boundlessly obedient.
When a string of humiliating defeats proved var Emreis fallible, the opposition – thus far secret – attacked.
The subjects of the emperor who had danced on the graves of his foes laid him to rest in a tomb of his own.
Game facts: mq3035_free_temeria = 0